Urban Outfitters ($URBN) will report its fourth-quarter earnings later today, and things have not been kind to the fashion brand. Year after year, things have been trending down, and if the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.63 is accurate, that's a 24% decline from last year.
Can the clothing trendsetter upend the declining stock price? The answer to that depends on how seriously you take Instagram.
Staff Count, Hiring, and Stores
The last four months have been stable enough for Urban's headcount, but stable headcount isn't making for a stable stock price. No matter the amount of revenue earned, there's a waning on the stock price, and on several other data points below.
Job postings are been down 37% since October, and while there's still a good bit of openings still available, it's mostly the lowest level positions.
The last three years have brought on declining interest on most social media platforms. Twitter followers are down 8% over that time, and while the official account still has (barely) a million fans, it's only going down. The unfollow on a brand is devastating since those people might not want to be customers anymore and don't want to see your posts/ads/products/deals.
The only bright spot, in an otherwise waning collection of data points, is Instagram. UO has seen an 81% jump since 2016 in followers, and unless younger fans are courted and sold to on Instagram solely, there might have to be some more substantial changes to stave off the dreaded retail apocalypse.
About the Data:
Thinknum tracks companies using the information they post online - jobs, social and web traffic, product sales and app ratings - and creates data sets that measure factors like hiring, revenue and foot traffic. Data sets may not be fully comprehensive (they only account for what is available on the web), but they can be used to gauge performance factors like staffing and sales.
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