In the early aughts, the pop music blasting from the MAC cosmetics counter could be heard above everything else on the ground floor of your local department store. This was pre-great-recession. And good times are back - shares soared more than 10% Monday August 19 after Estee Lauder ($EL) topped earnings expectations soundly. The company also boosted guidance when it revealed the big beat. 

It's a bit of a surprise for investors - MAC is known for has somewhat been replaced by the Gen Z-ers love of the dewy, iridescent vibe that younger brands like Milk Makeup and Glossier – heavily advertised on Facebook ($FB) and Instagram – provide.

According to Zack’s Investment Research, the EPS forecast for the quarter ending in June 2019 is $0.53 – down nearly 15 percent from the prior-year-quarter EPS of $0.61.

Despite this projected dip, Estee Lauder is still a leader in the cosmetics group of consumer goods. Recent acquisitions of millennial favorites BECCA and Too Faced, keep EL’s portfolio fresh. As for MAC tastemakers may not be using the brand for their Facebook live makeup tutorials or touting its bold colors as much as they were last year.

Other data is looking healthier - with moderate job posting gains over the quarter. 

Still, MAC’s expanding store count shows confidence that there’s room for revenue growth. Consumers still want to walk in to stores feeling like Britney’s shy “Not a Girl, Not Yet a Woman” and strut out feeling like Beyonce’s fierce “(Girls) Run the World.”

About the Data: 

Thinknum tracks companies using information they post online - jobs, social and web traffic, product sales and app ratings - and creates data sets that measure factors like hiring, revenue and foot traffic. Data sets may not be fully comprehensive (they only account for what is available on the web), but they can be used to gauge performance factors like staffing and sales. 

Further Reading: 

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