Common sense would dictate that in the case of a global pandemic, self-isolation, social distancing, and restaurant closures, food delivery would be primed for an incredibly bright short-term future. But Blue Apron ($APRN) is not bound for glory quite yet. Investors are betting on Blue Apron during this time of self-isolation, as the future likely has a lot to do with delivery services, at least for the short term. But social media and other metrics haven’t been so kind to the company.

If any other company doubled its stock in a day, there would be much ado about something, but when Blue Apron went from $2 to $4, it felt relatively weak considering the optics. Wall Street thinks very highly of the next year for the meal delivery service, but when we look into our crystal ball, which is powered by Thinknum Alternative Data, we may not agree.

The last year of data can be somewhat of an indicator for the next year, even though the news changes every day thanks to Covid-19 safety concerns. Twitter followers have been going down gradually for twelve straight months, although not enough to cause a calamity. It seems as though whatever hardcore fans of the service are following Blue Apron have already followed, and new people just aren't coming yet.

The exact same thing can be said about Facebook likes, which are dwindling ever so slightly. But the 'Talking About' count is the biggest cause for concern, as the last few months should see more online chatter about ordering meals to cook at home, and yet Blue Apron mentions are down 76% since the virus spread earlier this year.

Since July 2017, job listings have been cut in half, and Blue Apron continues to see its stock price drop. There is no telling what the future holds, but Blue Apron might want to aggressively pursue all those people working from home and everyone unable to find food at grocery stores. Empty shelves, while horrible for our society, should be something Blue Apron embraces as an opportunity in the midst of a global crisis.

Stay indoors and cook. Maybe a new slogan?

About the Data:

Thinknum tracks companies using the information they post online - jobs, social and web traffic, product sales and app ratings - and creates data sets that measure factors like hiring, revenue and foot traffic. Data sets may not be fully comprehensive (they only account for what is available on the web), but they can be used to gauge performance factors like staffing and sales. 

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