Micron Technologies' ($MU) stock has already enjoyed a big rebound from its trade war nadir, as US and Chinese officials did their best to tariff one another up to their respective eyeballs, before both parties reached a mid-December détente.
Still, analysts are less than sanguine: Wells Fargo Securities analysts said that the company should report earnings under expectations (via Zacks) of $0.48 EPS when it announces results Wednesday December 18, and that they're taking down future revenue and earnings estimates as well. Broadly speaking, anaalysts are expecting a 80% drop in EPS, and revenues to be off by more than one-third compared to a year ago.
But wait - didn't we just find a resolution to the trade war? And - at least according to the data - isn't one of the tech companies believed to have major China exposure just start ramping up hiring? The alternative data doesn't appear to jive with some of what market watchers are saying. There are yet some analysts who are bullish, like the Susquehanna Financial analyst who says Micron's chips for computers, and separately, their products for phones, are about to be back in demand in a big way. This is what the data tells us about Micron:
To start: after more than a year of job postings stalling growth, Micron technology was among a slew of US companies that saw operations substantially bounce back in China - or, at least, saw planned hiring for them soar. Micron job postings in China fell for the first 9 months of 2019, only to get a big boost come September - and that translates to a 32% increase so far this year.
Then, there's Micron's global job postings - and that, reflects another optimistic outlook - or at least, certainly rosier than some analysts are willing to volunteer. After a big dip in job postings, data suggests job postings at Micron have fully rebounded as of late.
Micron shares are up 54% so far this year, after making a big rebound from their free-fall. But it remains to be seen whether the company's expectations, or analysts', play out in the marketplace this winter.
About the Data:
Thinknum tracks companies using the information they post online - jobs, social and web traffic, product sales and app ratings - and creates data sets that measure factors like hiring, revenue and foot traffic. Data sets may not be fully comprehensive (they only account for what is available on the web), but they can be used to gauge performance factors like staffing and sales.
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